投资要点

事件

成功(gong)，永泰发热能(neng)源(yuan)公布2024 年(nian)3、一第四(si)季度意见书，2024 年(nian)1-9 月(yue)(yue)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)平(ping)台达(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)开张效益223.75 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)升(sheng)1.80%，达(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)归(gui)(gui)(gui)母(mu)毛(mao)(mao)利(li)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)(jian)率(lv)润(run)(run)14.64 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)缩减(jian)9.85%，税(shui)前列(lie)支(zhi)非定(ding)期性损(sun)益后归(gui)(gui)(gui)母(mu)毛(mao)(mao)利(li)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)(jian)率(lv)润(run)(run)为(wei)13.96 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)缩减(jian)13.67%。以上毛(mao)(mao)利(li)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)(jian)率(lv)润(run)(run)指数(shu)因集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)平(ping)台山西煤炭新产品(pin)消(xiao)售标价(jia)于2024 年(nian)1-9 月(yue)(yue)内受市(shi)场上影向(xiang)月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)落而缩减(jian)。单看3、一第四(si)季度，2024 年(nian)Q3 集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)平(ping)台达(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)开张效益78.63 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)缩减(jian)1.68%，达(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)归(gui)(gui)(gui)母(mu)毛(mao)(mao)利(li)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)(jian)率(lv)润(run)(run)2.74 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)缩减(jian)55.10%，税(shui)前列(lie)支(zhi)非定(ding)期性损(sun)益后归(gui)(gui)(gui)母(mu)毛(mao)(mao)利(li)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)(jian)率(lv)润(run)(run)2.84 万亿(yi)美(mei)金(jin)(jin)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)缩减(jian)53.57%。

煤炭板块：煤炭产销回升利润承压，海则滩项目顺利推进融资

2024 年1-9 月平台精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)现992.58 万(wan)立(li)(li)方(fang)米左右(you)、环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)提(ti)升4.04%，产(chan)生产(chan)量992.81 万(wan)立(li)(li)方(fang)米左右(you)、环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)3.48%；洗精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)现223.82 万(wan)立(li)(li)方(fang)米左右(you)、环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)跌(die)9.70%，产(chan)生产(chan)量219.03 万(wan)立(li)(li)方(fang)米左右(you)、环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)跌(die)10.24%；吨(dun)(dun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)单价716.74 元/吨(dun)(dun)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)跌(die)17.64%，吨(dun)(dun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)售费用350.08元/吨(dun)(dun)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)跌(die)7.43%；原煤(mei)(mei)(mei)业务范围(wei)毛利润比率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)为51.16%，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)跌(die)9.52%。

2024 年(nian)(nian)再者每季度、半(ban)年(nian)(nian)度，子(zi)(zi)企业(ye)(ye)体(ti)(ti)现(xian)(xian)煤(mei)质销(xiao)售(shou)业(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)(yuan)量394.38 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)12.97%，保(bao)有量400.58 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)14.16%；洗精(jing)煤(mei)销(xiao)售(shou)业(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)(yuan)量76.28 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)回落(luo)(luo)10.33%，保(bao)有量75.14 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)回落(luo)(luo)13.09%；吨(dun)(dun)(dun)煤(mei)卖价582.29 元/吨(dun)(dun)(dun)，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)回落(luo)(luo)25.93%；吨(dun)(dun)(dun)煤(mei)销(xiao)售(shou)业(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)(yuan)代价321.20 元/吨(dun)(dun)(dun)，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)回落(luo)(luo)13.95%；煤(mei)焦销(xiao)售(shou)业(ye)(ye)务(wu)纯利比(bi)(bi)率44.84%，环比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)回落(luo)(luo)14.62%。海(hai)则滩媒矿新(xin)好业(ye)(ye)务(wu)已积攒(zan)提(ti)(ti)(ti)交 2 期建(jian)筑工(gong)程搭(da)建(jian)达1065.2 米，与此同时子(zi)(zi)企业(ye)(ye)多(duo)方(fang)面推行(xing)新(xin)好业(ye)(ye)务(wu)业(ye)(ye)务(wu)融资做(zuo)任务(wu)，浦发(fa)信用社50 万亿(yi)银团带宽早就经(jing)过(guo)总行(xing)贷款审核(he)，并召(zhao)开大会银团团体(ti)(ti)联席会议安排，意(yi)向性参团金融业(ye)(ye)培训机构正实现(xian)(xian)目(mu)标里面贷款审核(he)。新(xin)好业(ye)(ye)务(wu)方(fang)案(an)2025 年(nian)(nian)末(mo)向前入三期建(jian)筑工(gong)程搭(da)建(jian)搭(da)建(jian)；2026 年(nian)(nian)6 月首采做(zuo)任务(wu)面投建(jian)，预(yu)期当时产煤(mei)300 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级；2027 年(nian)(nian)1个(ge)每季度、半(ban)年(nian)(nian)度实现(xian)(xian)目(mu)标联动试正常的工(gong)作，体(ti)(ti)现(xian)(xian)当时投建(jian)即达产，预(yu)期当时产煤(mei)1,000 亿(yi)立(li)(li)方(fang)米级。

电力板块：动力煤价格合理稳定，推动电力业绩显著改善

2024 年1-9 月(yue)发充(chong)电314.89 亿KW时，环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)扩(kuo)大11.27%；售(shou)(shou)充(chong)电298.53 亿KW时，环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)扩(kuo)大11.35%。2024 年3月(yue)度体现发充(chong)电121.24 亿KW时，环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)升(sheng)7.98%；售(shou)(shou)充(chong)电114.96 亿KW时，环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)升(sheng)8.00%。2024 节前三(san)月(yue)度，获益于牵引力煤售(shou)(shou)价处在(zai)适宜区(qu)间车，平(ping)台(tai)电网项目总(zong)建筑面(mian)积业绩表不(bu)错提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)，体现总(zong)建筑面(mian)积使收入(ru)139.0亿美(mei)元(yuan)元(yuan)、环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)11.24%，利润(run)21.00 亿美(mei)元(yuan)、环(huan)(huan)比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)79.86%。

储能板块：储能项目成功落地，科技创新助力产线建设有序优化

业(ye)务装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)制(zhi)作(zuo)这(zhei)个(ge)上(shang)(shang)，装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)首(shou)座(zuo)人格(ge)独立(li)自主学习EPC 总个(ge)人承包修(xiu)(xiu)建的(de)南山区光储(chu)混合式化储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)变(bian)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂(chang)于(yu)三(san)月(yue)底首(shou)次试运，该业(ye)务装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)制(zhi)作(zuo)2.7MWp 遍布式太阳能发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)和这(zhei)座(zuo)1.5MW/6MWh 全(quan)钒液流(liu)储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)变(bian)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂(chang)，储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)系統由6 套250kW 储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)模快组合成，多(duo)为新(xin)供电(dian)(dian)(dian)系統加快调控信息、保护用户名侧供电(dian)(dian)(dian)系統频段稳固(gu)。另一(yi)个(ge)上(shang)(shang)，德泰(tai)储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)250kW/1,000kWh 全(quan)钒液流(liu)体现业(ye)务拟于(yu)8 月(yue)首(shou)次试运。产线提(ti)高这(zhei)个(ge)上(shang)(shang)，装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)组织保障网(wang)络产业(ye)创新(xin)高技(ji)术(shu)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)成效(xiao)，坚持提(ti)高德泰(tai)储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)装(zhuang)配(pei)装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)一(yi)次300MW/年全(quan)钒液流(liu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)瓶储(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)装(zhuang)配(pei)加工(gong)(gong)制(zhi)造产线装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)制(zhi)作(zuo)及(ji)结构。网(wang)络产业(ye)研制(zhi)开发(fa)(fa)这(zhei)个(ge)上(shang)(shang)，32kW 钒电(dian)(dian)(dian)瓶电(dian)(dian)(dian)堆研制(zhi)开发(fa)(fa)已(yi)不断至(zhi)1.3 版本的(de)，并随着高技(ji)术(shu)研制(zhi)开发(fa)(fa)及(ji)设备不断进步，将(jiang)一(yi)直提(ti)高全(quan)钒液流(liu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)瓶生产销售线装(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)制(zhi)作(zuo)及(ji)结构。

盈利预测与估值

有(you)(you)限(xian)品牌炼焦(jiao)煤成本很(hen)稀缺性强(qiang)，收费(fei)卖场化方面(mian)(mian)高，同一煤电(dian)区(qu)域(yu)互(hu)替(ti)，有(you)(you)效率改善媒碳和(he)电(dian)力设备区(qu)域(yu)在(zai)经营管理过程(cheng)中中过渡期性方面(mian)(mian)，对(dui)煤电(dian)收费(fei)过渡期性浮动实(shi)现缓(huan)冲器(qi)意义，同一再(zai)加上有(you)(you)限(xian)品牌正面(mian)(mian)积极推动钒(fan)液流干电(dian)池分布，十年(nian)(nian)后的中国成长作文性强(qiang)。自(zi)己保(bao)守估计(ji)2024-2026年(nian)(nian)，有(you)(you)限(xian)品牌归(gui)母纯利益润24.79/27.80/30.11 亿美元，代(dai)表EPS 不同为0.11/0.13/0.14 元，代(dai)表PE 不同为12.55/11.19/10.33，稳定(ding)“加持”定(ding)级。

风险提示：

储热制度积(ji)极推动(dong)不(bu)似预期(qi)的安(an)(an)全保(bao)障隐患；安(an)(an)全保(bao)障生产的安(an)(an)全保(bao)障隐患；炼焦煤(mei)市(shi)场价格不(bu)间断下滑安(an)(an)全保(bao)障隐患。